VMGD Climate and ENSO Outlook

SCOPIC predictions lo manis blo March kasem May

2013 ( usim SST 1 & 9) lo Vanuatu Northern Region: Lo ol provinces blo yumi lo Not ( Torba, Sanma, Penama mo Malampa) forecast hemi bias iko lo renfol we i bitim normal lo tri manis we i stap kam lo Pekoa lo Santo while yumi expectem normal ren bae i foldaon lo Sola wetem Lamap station. (Confidence: Low kasem moderate). Southern Region: Lo ol provinces blo yumi lo saot (Shefa mo Tafea) forecast hemi bias iko lo renfol we i bitim normal lo everi stations blo Bauerfield, Whitegrass mo Aneityum while hemi below normal lo Port Vila. (Confidence: I low kasem gud) Taem yumi usim SOI olsem predictor, ol renfol blo yumi lo ol stations lo Vanuatu oli below lo normal lo nekis tri manis we i stap kam. Tropical Cyclone Watch Nowia yumi stap lo second haf blo season blo cyclone blo 2012-13. History i soem se bae yumi shud expectem se bae lo nowia kasem April bae cyclone season hemi active bitim lo first haf. I kat wan phase blo Madden Julian Oscilation (MJO) bae i pas bitwin lo end blo Feb mo first week blo March mo yumi shud expectem blo i save mekem ren mo i providem wan gud condition blo cyclone i form lo hem. Yumi predictem se bae yumi kasem 2-4 cyclones.