Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2014-2015

Vanuatu Forecast to have two tropical cyclones for 2014/15 season

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazard Department (VMGD) releases its tropical cyclone

outlook for the 2014-2015 Tropical Cyclone Season for Vanuatu’s Area (12S to 23° S and 160°

E to 175° E) following the release of the regional tropical cyclone outlook.

With the 2014-2015 Tropical Cyclone Season approaching (1st November 2014), the Pacific

region is forecast to have 8 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TC) from November 2014 to April

2015. Tropical cyclone activity for Vanuatu and New Caledonia is anticipated to be below

normal for this season while elevated activity is expected for countries east of the International

Date Line. The seasonal long forecast reflects an expectation of overall reduced activity during

the early season (November to January) and net increased activity forecast in general during

the late season (February to April). Vanuatu is located in an area where tropical cyclone

numbers do not differ much and researches have established that it remains the hotspot of

tropical cyclone activity in the region.

With the ENSO neutral conditions existing in the Equatorial Pacific region and is forecast for

a weak El Nino developing in the coming months, Vanuatu is likely to experience two cyclones

within Vanuatu’s Area. The forecast also indicate that there will be at least one or more severe

tropical cyclone (category 3 or higher) to occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during

the season. In Vanuatu, tropical cyclone activity is at its peak during the months of December

to February but highest in January. From 1969-70 to 2009-2010 seasons, Vanuatu experienced

116 cyclones that have passed 500km radius of Port Vila.

Each year Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the greatest cyclone activity in the region

with at least 2-3 cyclones passing close to the countries. Therefore people living in Vanuatu

should remain vigilant at all times during this cyclone season incase conditions in the equatorial

Pacific changes.