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Technical paper: The risk of disaster-induced displacement in the Pacific island states
This technical paper represents an initial attempt to as
-
sess the risk of disaster-induced displacement in 21 is
-
land states in the South Pacific. It presents results from
the second of five planned analyses
1
which correspond
with the regional consultations of the Nansen Initiative,
a state-led process that brings together representatives
from governments, international organisations, civil soci
-
ety, think tanks and other key actors to develop a protec
-
tion agenda for people displaced across state borders by
disasters and the effects of climate change.
2
Preliminary
results of this analysis were presented at the Nansen
Initiative consultation in the Cook Islands in May 2013.
The primary intended audience for this paper are those
in national and regional governments responsible for
reducing and managing disaster risks and for protecting
the rights of internally displaced persons (
IDP
s). Given
that displacement risk is largely influenced by human
decisions, final outputs of the process discussed in this
paper could potentially inform development decisions and
reduce or avoid the risk of displacement. Humanitarian
actors may also use this analysis to inform preparedness
planning for disaster-induced displacement. For example,
the paper could help determine evacuation centre capac
-
ity, temporary shelter needs or funding needed for activ
-
ities to reduce displacement risk in particular countries.
Findings from the five regional analyses will inform a con
-
solidated report on the risk of disaster-induced displace
-
ment. Drawing on
IDMC
’s
Global Estimates
3
and other
relevant data on previously reported disaster-induced
displacement, this report and the five regional analyses
will provide evidence-based estimates and scenarios
concerning the likelihood of future displacement—and
how it can be mitigated.
The following analysis is based on probabilistic risk. It
models a methodology that has been widely used to
assess the likelihood of disaster-related economic loss
-
es and fatalities.
IDMC
is testing this methodology to
assess the likelihood of displacement, having already
published an assessment of displacement risk in Central
America.
4
This methodology will be refined and expand
-
ed in 2014 in regional analyses focusing on South Asia
and Southeast Asia. A fifth technical paper, focusing on
drought-induced displacement in the Horn of Africa, will
expand the analysis by employing a methodology based
on system dynamics modelling due to the difficulty of
estimating drought-related displacement using existing
methodologies. An initial analysis based on the system
dynamics model, which accounts for drought impacts on
the natural resources, livelihoods and displacement, will
be published in early 2014. The aim of each report is to
provide the best possible estimates of displacement risk
given the available data. In this spirit of continuous im
-
provement,
IDMC
invites relevant experts and interested
readers to comment on and contribute to this innovative
area of work
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Publisher | NAB Secretariat |
| Modified | |
| Release Date | |
| Identifier | 6b359a64-2e9a-4047-878f-fd7a29340577 |
| Author | Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre/ IDMC |
Publication Year
2014